Impact of non-Poissonian activity patterns on spreading processes

Title:
Impact of non-Poissonian activity patterns on spreading processes
Creator:
Vazquez, Alexei (Author)
Rácz, Balázs (Author)
Lukács, András (Author)
Barabási, Albert-László (Author)
Language:
English
Publisher:
The American Physical Society, April 01, 2007
Type of resource:
Text
Genre:
Articles
Format:
electronic
Digital origin:
born digital
Abstract/Description:
Halting a computer or biological virus outbreak requires a detailed understanding of the timing of the interactions between susceptible and infected individuals. While current spreading models assume that users interact uniformly in time, following a Poisson process, a series of recent measurements indicates that the intercontact time distribution is heavy tailed, corresponding to a temporally inhomogeneous bursty contact process. Here we show that the non-Poisson nature of the contact dynamics results in prevalence decay times significantly larger than predicted by the standard Poisson process based models. Our predictions are in agreement with the detailed time resolved prevalence data of computer viruses, which, according to virus bulletins, show a decay time close to a year, in contrast with the 1 day decay predicted by the standard Poisson process based models.
Comments:
Originally published in Physical Review Letters 98(15), 2007. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.98.158702
Subjects and keywords:
Computer viruses
Epidemics
complex networks
outbreaks
non-Poissonian activity patterns
Physics
Permanent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/2047/d20000699

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